Frameworks · Build · 104

Start with what you have

Build from the answers, not from a forecast.

SWe reviewed the research on it.Starting

How to use it

Before a new idea, answer three questions: what do I already have (skills, story, people)? Who will commit now? What can I afford to lose? Build from the answers, not from a forecast.

How sure we are

S Evidence: strong. Large trials or many studies, pointing the same way.

Sources

Read, Song & Smit 2009 (meta-analysis, 9,897 ventures).

Not medical, legal or financial advice.

Put it to work

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More build frameworks

102 SWin one, clearlyOne clear, documented win before you spread out.108 EThe won't-do lineIf a choice doesn't exclude anything, it isn't a strategy.142 SA yes isn't data, a payment isCount commitments, not compliments.149 PThe premortemIt lowers overconfidence. Don't claim more than that.58 SThe outside viewUse the average of three past tasks, not your feeling.153 PCForecast in percentages, score yourselfPut a number on it, then keep score.