Frameworks · Build · 153

Forecast in percentages, score yourself

Put a number on it, then keep score.

PCWe reviewed the research on it.Starting

Hand-drawn diagram of framework 153, Forecast in percentages, score yourself: Put a number on it, then keep score.
Framework 153 · in one look
How to use it

Every key decision gets a probability ("70% this launch gets 50 sales in 30 days"), starting from the base rate. Average yours with one other person's, and score the forecasts each quarter.

How sure we are

P Evidence: promising. Good studies, but small or few. Use it and keep checking.

C Evidence: contested. The research disagrees. Named, so you can stop worrying about it.

Sources

Mellers et al. 2014 (forecasting tournaments). How much forecasting can be trained is debated.

Not medical, legal or financial advice.

Put it to work

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