Frameworks · Build · 149

The premortem

It lowers overconfidence. Don't claim more than that.

PWe reviewed the research on it.Starting

Hand-drawn diagram of framework 149, The premortem: It lowers overconfidence. Don't claim more than that.
Framework 149 · in one look
How to use it

Before a launch, write "It's a year from now and this failed badly." Everyone lists reasons alone for five minutes, then you pick the top three and add a prevention step for each. It reliably lowers overconfidence; evidence that it improves outcomes is thin.

How sure we are

P Evidence: promising. Good studies, but small or few. Use it and keep checking.

Sources

Veinott, Klein & Wiggins 2010.

Not medical, legal or financial advice.

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